Predictions on the possible evolution of COVID-19 based on mathematical modeling could therefore represent important tools for designing and/or evaluating countermeasures 13, 15, 16, 17.
![top 100 models nyc top 100 models nyc](https://c8.alamy.com/comp/PN57DG/billboard-hot-100-featuring-sabrina-carpenter-where-nyc-new-york-united-states-when-20-aug-2018-credit-patricia-schleinwenncom-PN57DG.jpg)
To date, many papers have reported the use of mathematical models and simulators to evaluate the progression of COVID-19 in local or more global settings 11, 12, 13, 14.
![top 100 models nyc top 100 models nyc](https://c8.alamy.com/comp/TDFW2J/june-15-2019-new-york-new-york-us-new-york-ny-human-rights-connection-arts-body-painted-over-100-models-in-nycs-times-square-as-part-of-their-protest-against-divisiveness-after-the-models-were-painted-they-marched-down-broadway-to-the-flatiron-building-on-23rd-street-and-formed-a-song-circle-to-finish-the-days-protest-credit-image-bruce-cotlerglobe-photos-via-zuma-wire-TDFW2J.jpg)
However, other tools, such as mathematical modeling, are much more widely available and may be of extraordinary value when managing epidemic events such as the COVID-19 pandemics. Countries that are better equipped than others in terms of high-end scientific development, diagnostics technology, and health care infrastructure may respond more efficaciously to a pandemic scenario. The gap between developed and developing countries may explain some of the differences in the scale of the responses that we are observing 3. At this point, some territories in Latin America (i.e., México) are just experiencing a second “exponential phase” of the COVID-19 pandemic at home and do not appear having yet implemented proper containment measures as rapidly as needed. Indeed, we have been able to observe exemplary responses from some Asian countries (i.e., China 5, South Korea 6, and Singapore 7), some highly aggressive responses in Europe (i.e., Germany and Switzerland 8), and several delayed or not so effective responses from other regions (i.e., USA, England, Italy and Spain) 9, 10. COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. The socio-economic effects of COVID-19 have been and will be also remarkable 3, 4, and have to be yet fully quantified. By the end of 2020, one year after its emergence, the official cumulative number of infected worldwide ascended to more than 80 million with a toll of death higher than 1.75 million and a strong presence in Las Americas, mainly in the USA 1, Europe, and India 2. More than 60,000,000 positive cases of COVID-19 infection had been declared worldwide at that point, mainly in China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and other European countries. The simplicity and accuracy of this model will greatly contribute to democratizing the availability of knowledge in societies regarding the extent of an epidemic event and the efficacy of a governmental response.Ī SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization in March 2020.
Top 100 models nyc simulator#
Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak. We show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic conditions and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions.